Macro Survey, Fri 6 Nov: Options Strategy — Mixed Tenors and a Forward Positioning Map

As of Friday 6 November 2026 (Europe/Zurich). Educational only. Description of published PAM positioning — not a forecast and not a trade instruction.

This is Part 2. It is the PAM options-strategy and multi-expiry positioning map. The macroeconomic backdrop is in Part 1.

Snapshot. OptionsDepth 05:43 ET. Prior close 7,353.73. VIX 26.57. Indicated level 7,381.00 (Hyperliquid). The open can change this.

How to read the book

Steadying means net gamma is positive and hedging leans against a move. Amplifying means net gamma is negative and hedging follows a move. The anchor is the largest positive net near the print. The weak spot is the largest negative net near the print.

Keep three clocks: today’s expiry, the next three expiries, and all expiries through the 20 November monthly. Do not import the monthly book into a 0DTE decision.

Call-wall / put-wall rule: a call wall is the largest positive strike above spot. A put wall is the largest negative strike below. Downside breaks through a put wall deserve more respect than upside tests of a call wall.

Forward map

The market is skittish and two-way.

Today (6 Nov) is steadying at +14.9.

The next three expiries (9–11 Nov) are amplifying at −12.5 combined.

All expiries to 18 Dec are steadying at +15.1.

The tactical window to 20 Nov is a stall between 7340 and 7455.

Levels (to 20 Nov)

• First positive: 7365
• Floor / weak spot: 7340 (largest amplifying strike below the print; a break that does not come back ends the two-way call)
• Thin positive: 7400
• Ceiling / where rallies stall: 7455

Counter-trend flow. 0DTE flow is counter-trend. Inside the day, pullbacks toward 7365 have tended to find support and rallies into 7455 have tended to stall, as long as 7340 holds. The support ends the moment 7340 is broken and does not come back, or a new positive shelf prints and holds above 7455.

QuantData Net Drift (net customer flows, in premium) for SPX, covering options expiring within the next 90 days. Green is calls, red is puts and orange is the net. Captured 6 Nov, 05:57 ET.

Expected move (VIX only): ±123.5 points, 7,257.5 to 7,504.5 (base 7,381.00).

Customer positioning after the break

Thursday’s session broke the prior floor and closed far below it. Overnight and into Friday, customers bought a large amount of puts. The SPX net-drift chart shows put premium rising sharply in the early hours. Calls were also bought, but put premium was the dominant flow.

Customers were not positioned for the size of the move. They bought downside protection after the break. The other side of those puts is now long the size of the level near the new lows. That is why today’s expiry shows a steadying shelf while the next three expiries remain amplifying.

The stall window 7340–7455 is the working range. Inside that window the counter-trend flow still applies: pullbacks toward 7365 have tended to find support and rallies into 7455 have tended to stall, as long as 7340 holds. A break of 7340 that does not come back ends the two-way call.

What would change this

• A break below 7340 that does not come back ends the two-way call.
• A move above 7455 that holds is a new positive shelf. That ends the stall at 7455.
• A flip in the sign of the book over this period changes the phase.

Prefer description over conviction. Prefer separate answers by tenor. Near-dated inheritance leans amplifying for the next three. The stall window is the working map until the next snapshot.

Educational only. Copyright Robert P. Balan.