SPX Market Positioning & PAM Game Plan — Mon 9 Nov: All Expiries to 18 Dec

Stuck between 7375 and 7520 into OPEX: 7375 is the floor to watch, 7520 is where rallies have stalled.

Summary

• Today's expiry is amplifying, net −5.8 M$/pt, down from +0.6 at Friday's close.
• The next three expiries (10, 11 and 12 Nov) are also amplifying, net −6.1 combined.
• Before the open, the map through 20 Nov is a stall window between 7375 and 7520. 7435 is the nearest strong steadying strike at or below the 7,438 indicated level.
• The indicated level is 7,438.00, 61.14 points above Friday's 7,376.86 close.

Prior close 7,376.86 (SPX, Yahoo, 6 Nov) · VIX 23.43 (Yahoo, 08:16 ET) · Indicated level 7,438.00 (SPX perpetual, Hyperliquid, not the index; +61.14 pts vs the prior close) · Options snapshot 08:30 ET

Read this first. This describes overnight positioning at the 08:30 ET snapshot. It is a description, not a forecast. The actual open can change it radically, and often does: new positioning arrives at 09:30 ET and can reverse the picture.

How to read it. Steadying means net gamma is positive and market-maker hedging tends to lean against a move; amplifying means it is negative and hedging tends to follow a move. The anchor is the strike within 100 points of the print with the largest positive net, the weak spot the one with the largest negative net.

Yesterday's levels

This scores Friday's published 0DTE Early NY Open note (6 Nov, 10:16 ET snapshot), not a Friday Game Plan — Friday's free note was the Macro Survey instead. The last Game Plan was Thursday 5 Nov. Path figures are from saved Yahoo ^GSPC 1-minute bars for 6 Nov.

Yahoo's regular session opened at 7,377.65, printed a high of 7,444.20 at 09:54 ET and a low of 7,369.55 at the 09:30 ET bar, and closed at 7,376.86 (prior close 7,353.73).

• 7455, the level where that note said rallies were likely to stall: a win. The session high of 7,444.20 stayed below it.
• 7390, the floor in that note: a miss. The open at 7,377.65 was already below 7390, and the low printed 7,369.55.
• 7430, the strongest hold above the early print, with 7435 the negative strike directly above it: a miss as a hard lid. The high ran through both, to 7,444.20, before the session slipped back.
• The broader Macro Survey Part 2 stall of 7340–7455, which that note also cited, held: the low stayed above 7340 and the high stayed below 7455.

Tactical approach - All Expiries (9 Nov – 20 Nov)

Phase: Stall window. Two-way between 7375 and 7520. Rallies are likely to stall at 7520. 7375 is the floor for now; a break below 7375 opens lower prices.

The next expiry shelf is 4 sessions away. The monthly expiry is 20 Nov. The book over this period is amplifying.

These levels sum all 10 expiries in the heat map from 9 Nov to 20 Nov.

Levels

• First positive: 7435. It is the nearest strong steadying strike at or below 7,438.00.
• Floor / weak spot: 7375. It is the largest amplifying strike below the print; support at 7375 is thin and a break below 7375 opens lower prices.
• Thin positive: 7440. It is a small steadying strike above the print.
• Ceiling / where rallies stall: 7520. It is the largest steadying strike above the print. Rallies are likely to stall at 7520.

These levels are temporary. Their strength depends on the current options flow and can shift as new positioning arrives.

Counter-trend flow. 0DTE flow is counter-trend. Inside the day, pullbacks toward 7435 have tended to find support and rallies into 7520 have tended to stall, as long as 7375 holds.

Expected move (VIX only): ±109.8 points, 7,328.2 to 7,547.8. The base is 7,438.00 (SPX perpetual (Hyperliquid), 2026-11-09 08:29 ET). The formula is spot × VIX ÷ 100 ÷ √252.

What would change this

• A break below 7375 that does not come back ends the two-way call.
• A move above 7520 that holds is a new positive shelf. That ends the stall at 7520.
• A flip in the sign of the book over this period changes the phase.

Today (9 Nov expiry)

Amplifying, net −5.8 M$/pt. That is higher than 5 of the last 20 sessions at this hour.

Since the 6 Nov close it went from +0.6 to −5.8 (−6.4); the 6 Nov 20:00 to 9 Nov 04:00 ET window (2 non-trading days in between) is where the new positioning formed.

The anchor is 7490 (+5.7), the strongest positive strike; the weak spot is 7505 (−4.0), the largest negative.

A second read from 0DTE vanna: the largest concentrations near the print sit at the same 7490 / 7505 pair — positive vanna at 7490 with that strike's positive net gamma, and negative vanna at 7505 with the negative net gamma directly above it. That does not change the gamma map.

One-day expected move: ±108.9 points, a box of 7,268.0 to 7,485.7 (prior close × VIX ÷ 100 × √(1/252)).

The next three expiries (10, 11 and 12 Nov)

Amplifying, net −6.1 M$/pt combined. That is higher than 3 of the last 20 sessions at this hour.

Since the 6 Nov close it went from −0.4 to −6.1 (−5.7).

Over these three expiries the anchor is 7500 (+2.6 combined: +1.3 on 10 Nov, +0.6 on 11 Nov, +0.7 on 12 Nov) and the weak spot is 7375 (−3.7 combined: −0.6 on 10 Nov, −3.3 on 11 Nov, +0.2 on 12 Nov).

Expected move to 12 Nov: ±217.8 points, a box of 7,159.1 to 7,594.6. This is a rougher rule of thumb: the one-day figure scaled by √4, the 4 sessions from the 6 Nov close to the 12 Nov close, and it assumes constant volatility.

All expiries (9 Nov – 18 Dec)

Across all 12 pulled expiries (9 Nov to 18 Dec) the net is −9.0: amplifying.

Net Drift

QuantData Net Drift (net customer flows, in premium) for SPX, covering options expiring within the next 90 days. Green is calls, red is puts and orange is the net. Captured 9 Nov, 08:04 ET.

Customer positioning against this morning's gamma map, from the OptionsDepth all-customer book at the 08:30 ET snapshot (contracts summed across 9 Nov to 20 Nov, the same window as the levels above):

• At 7520, the ceiling, customers are net short about 8,200 contracts, almost entirely from sold puts (about 8,700 puts sold against 500 calls bought). That matches the strike's large positive net gamma (+9.7).
• At 7375, the floor, customers are net long about 2,250 contracts, mostly bought puts (about 1,700 puts and 560 calls). Net gamma there is negative (−4.7), so support at 7375 is thin.
• At 7435, the nearest strong steadying strike at or below the indicated level, customers sold about 2,300 puts and bought about 450 calls.
• On today's expiry alone, customers sold about 1,860 calls at 7490, the strongest positive 0DTE strike, and bought about 1,550 calls at 7505, the largest negative 0DTE strike just above it.

These are contract counts, not premium, so they describe positioning rather than the dollar flows in the chart.

Sources: options positioning from OptionsDepth (snapshot 2026-11-09 08:30 ET, market-maker perspective; history at the same time of day on the previous 20 sessions and the 06 Nov 15:59 ET snapshot); prior close and VIX from Yahoo (^GSPC 06 Nov; ^VIX 1m bar 08:16 ET); indicated level from the Hyperliquid xyz:SP500 perpetual (1m candle 08:29 ET), a third-party futures contract and not the SPX index. The 18 Dec monthly expiry does not separate SPX from SPXW.

Watch the latest teaching recap, How to read a 0DTE session from the live options book, on Predictive Analytic Models.

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Copyright: Robert P. Balan (c)