20-Day Game Plan — 13 Nov 2026: expiry day, 7500 to 7740 into the 20 Nov OpEx

Thursday 12 November closed at 7,592.40, inside the 7500 to 7700 range from yesterday's Game Plan. Overnight the indicated level, from the Hyperliquid SPX perpetual, firmed to 7,605.00 at 06:29 ET, 12.60 points above the close. Today the 13 November weekly expires.

Stance and the 20-day map

The stance into the 20 November monthly is a projected range, 7500 to 7740. Across the six expiries in that window the book is amplifying, net −13.2: two-way, not a trend. The ceiling moves up from 7700 to 7740. 7 days remain to the monthly OpEx, 5 sessions.

At this snapshot a lognormal from VIX 18.34, with no skew, sketches the market-implied likelihood of the 20 November close. It is not a forecast, and it will reshape as positioning changes. The 50% band is about 7458 to 7748, the 80% band about 7331 to 7883. On the same strike axis, 7740 is the ceiling at +12.6, 7520 the hold at +12.4, and 7500 the weak spot at −14.4, with 7510 next to it at −14.3. Closer in, 7600 holds at +10.8, with a weak spot at 7580, −11.4.

20 November OpEx

The 20 November book alone agrees on the edges: 7740 is the largest hold, at +11.3; 7500 is the largest negative, at −16.8. Near the print, the books split at 7600 again: +10.8 across the 13–20 November window, −3.5 on the monthly book.

Three-day

Over the next three expiries (16, 17 and 18 November) the book is steadying, net +12.9, higher than 15 of the last 20 sessions at this hour. 7520 is the hold, at +14.2, right over a 7510 weak spot, −13.3. Closer in, 7600 holds at +9.6, and 7580 is the weak spot below, −10.9.

Net Drift

QuantData Net Drift, options under 90 days, is a premium-flow read, not a forecast. Near 3:30 ET put selling stepped net sharply positive, and again near 4:30 ET; net has risen since, and calls turned slightly positive after about 5:40 ET. Market-wide and SPX look almost the same: net $7.05M market-wide and $6.97M on SPX. (Source: QuantData Net Drift.)

0DTE entry

Today's expiry is the entry point, not where the stance is decided. It is amplifying, net −22.0. The indicated level sits on a small 7605 cap (−3.2), between the 7600 hold (+4.0) and the 7610 hold (+6.0). 7585 is the weak spot below (−4.2). Above, 7660 is the largest hold (+7.3) and 7675 the largest negative (−6.0).

New: the 0DTE Visual Queue Map

The queue map stacks customer calls, customer puts, GEX, VEX, charm (CEX) and delta (DEX) on one strike axis, so you can see which strikes are live, showing up in several rows at once, and which show up in only one. On this morning's book, 7675 shows up in all six rows and 7660 in five. Charm swings sign from 7655 to 7675, which matters on an expiry day. The indicated strike, 7605, shows up in GEX alone: thin, not live. We'll refresh this map in the Early NY Open.

What confirms or breaks

Tonight's recap will ask whether the day confirmed this plan or broke from it. Closes inside 7500 to 7740 through today's weekly keep the range. A move above 7740 that holds is a new positive shelf. A break below 7500 that does not come back ends the range stance. If the book flips from amplifying to steadying, the phase changes.

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